While the oil and gas industry is no stranger to market turmoil, the current landscape of geopolitical tension, tariff uncertainty, regulatory changes, and price instability has led to an unexpected bout of unpredictability.
April 2025 saw a fall in U.S. rig counts and cautionary signals from giants like Halliburton. While the market is indicating some signs of resilience, this is likely to be short-lived. Given the amount of uncertainty in the market, producers should adopt a strategic, long-range view to withstand what might be a turbulent year ahead.
A Market on Edge
2025 began with some cause for optimism with crude prices near $70 per barrel and U.S. producers expecting stable activity levels. By April 8th, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) had hit a low of $60.04, a price not seen since spring 2021. Beyond that, rig counts continued to decline and industry analysts were revising growth projections downwards.
Political headwinds, including tariff uncertainty and broader economic instability, have mixed with global supply factors, including a resurgence of OPEC+ output. The result? A highly-dynamic and uncertain market in the oil and gas industry.
Halliburton’s Q1 earnings call summed up the situation well. Its North America revenue dropped 12% year-over-year. Its CEO, Jeff Miller, told shareholders that, in light of this, U.S. customers are reevaluating their 2025 drilling forecasts. Among the many challenges facing the industry have been the effect of higher tariffs on steel and other materials needed to drill and complete wells.
Independent producers were just as wary in their outlook. In response to the Dallas Fed’s first-quarter energy survey, one producer described the policy landscape as “chaos,” while another said that there cannot be “U.S. energy dominance and $50-per-barrel oil”
What are some steps a producer can take in times of uncertainty?
What To Do When the Floor Falls Out
These kinds of market conditions can upend planning. For producers, every well drilled at breakeven or below can be a strategic liability. Operators outside of high-yield shale basins are actively pulling back or delaying new projects entirely.
In early April, the U.S. rig count dropped to 583, its lowest since 2022. In this kind of environment, overleveraged operators risk being forced into asset sales, shelving projects, or even exiting markets.
A critical, and often underused, lever in these situations is timing. The impulse to push ahead with well development, even when market signals deteriorate, is counterproductive. In some cases, drilling a well but holding off on completion can preserve capital, avoid entering a low-price market with excess supply, and give time to reassess conditions.
This kind of approach buys time and can be particularly useful in shale plays where completing a well can be a flexible, downstream decision.
Internal pressures can often hinder organizations’ ability to make these kinds of tough choices. The right strategic advisors can help producers plot the right course through turbulence.
Navigating With an Advisor
Market instability represents a moment to lean into an advisor ecosystem. Guesswork is rarely rewarded. Now is the time for insight, speed, and adaptability. A trusted strategic advisor, like those at Getzler Henrich, can help organizations adapt to policy shifts, optimize supply chain decisions, and reposition capital.
For example, the decision to complete drilling but stop short of production may fly in the face of internal performance mandates that are tied to production targets. In one case seen at Getzler Henrich, a management team, driven by incentive structures and investor expectations, brought wells online during a projected downturn, resulting in bankruptcy months later.
An advisor can also help manage communication and planning with lenders. Transparency around cost overruns or strategic delays is a sign of capable leadership managing broader instability.
Market turmoil requires the knowledge of when to hold back, preserve credibility, and protect the balance sheet.
The early signals of 2025 suggest that volatility may be here to stay. Resilience through these times shouldn’t happen after the fact. It should start now with hard decisions, smart partnerships, and a clear-eyed view of what might be ahead.
