Across the country, small, regional, and tuition-dependent colleges are staring down the enrollment cliff. Beginning this fall, there will be a drop-off in high-school seniors applying to college, a demographic trend connected to America’s declining birth rate following the 2008 recession. The predictions are dire: there will be an estimated 15% fewer high-school graduates by 2039.
Beyond that, more Americans than ever are skeptical about the value of a college degree. In fact, only 22% of adults believe a college degree is worth it if they have to take out loans.
Some institutions may be treating these developments like a passing storm that can be weathered with the usual tactics: tuition discounts, modest rebranding, or tinkering at the edges of academic programs.
This isn’t a storm. It’s an earthquake. And the longer campus leadership takes to prepare for the inevitable shake out, the worse the next decade will be.
Now is the moment to take a hard and honest look in the mirror. Below is a framework built for institutional leaders who know that the stakes are existential.
1. Get Clear on a Value Proposition—Really Clear.
The fundamental question every at-risk institution must ask is: Why would a prospective student choose us?
This shouldn’t be viewed as a branding exercise for the marketing department. Instead, it’s a mission-connected inquiry into the value an institution can bring in an increasingly competitive marketplace.
Every college can say that they offer a “transformative experience” with a “close-knit community.” Colleges that will survive have to go past this to pinpoint the specific, demonstrable value that their campus delivers to students.
Does the college have strong job placement in a specific region or industry? Or does it have access to pre-professional training in technology, healthcare, or other growing fields? Does it offer undergraduates early access to research or internships through partnerships with local employers? Are graduates consistently hired by local businesses?
The value proposition here shouldn’t be aspirational. Instead, it has to be a measurable set of criteria that the college accomplishes well. The goal is to communicate indispensability to a small batch of students, an exercise that should match institutional identity to market need.
2. Get That Value Communicated
Once a campus knows its value proposition it has to get the word out.
This won’t be a one-time branding campaign or a new website tagline. It’s an institutional commitment to clarity. Admissions officers, faculty, trustees, and student-facing staff should be able to answer the question: what are we known for, and why is that worth investing in?
For example, if the college prepares first-generation students for careers in health services in its region, that’s the institution’s ownable message. There should be messaging, evidence, and outcomes to back that up, along with alignment across teams and departments.
3. Make the Tough Changes
The next step is demonstrably tougher. Communicating a value proposition is one thing. Adapting a campus to reflect current realities is another.
Decisions about resource allocation, program cuts, and structural changes can take time, both to make these choices but also to see the cost savings. Because of the protracted timeline, inaction at an early stage will ultimately be more dangerous for a campus than any single cut.
Here are some of the hard questions to be asking now:
- Which programs no longer attract sustainable enrollment?
- Where is our instructional cost outpacing demand?
- Can departments or campus services be consolidated to reduce overhead?
- Are there peer institutions with whom we should be exploring a merger or consortial agreement?
A thoughtful restructuring process can take 18 months to three years before implementation and savings. That leads to another painful question:
- Does the campus have the cash runway to get to that point?
If the answer is no, the college cannot wait until insolvency to move into scenario planning around what comes next.
4. Be Honest About the Long-Term
Not every campus will survive in its current form. But winding down operations or merging requires the same 18-month to three-year timeline.
Leaders on campus need to figure out and then communicate the truth about anticipated trajectories. Communicating this is important, as students, staff, faculty, and the community at large need time to adapt to a new future. Beyond that, identifying merger or teach-out partners and allowing students to transfer their credits to new institutions cannot be accomplished in a single semester.
This might mean preparing for a merger. It might mean planning an orderly wind-down. Or it might mean doubling down on a smaller strategic niche and building the case for long-term viability.
But no matter what, it means moving from denial to discipline.
5. Find an Ally on the Board.
Higher ed administrators cannot do this alone.
One of the most overlooked parts of strategic transformation is consistent and transparent board partnership. Not every board member or trustee can understand the day-to-day challenges a campus may face. However within every board, there are a few members who can become genuine strategic allies.
It is in the college’s best interest to find these members and make sure that they understand the stakes and the strategy.
A board member with financial acumen and institutional commitment can be the difference between hard decisions that are supported and hard decisions that spark resistance.
Especially in a moment of crisis, the board must evolve from a governance body to a stewardship partner. That evolution starts with relationships.
Final Thoughts
Higher education is in the midst of a reckoning. Confronting it with open eyes may help strengthen a campus’ position, but ignoring it will only lead to distress.
Early, decisive, and honest action can help ensure survival. Defining what makes a college essential and aligning every part of the campus around that mission is neither easy nor pain-free. But it’s necessary.
The window for serious planning is rapidly closing. The time to lead is now.
